The San Diego Padres will look to sweep the Minnesota Twins with a win on Wednesday afternoon at Petco Park.
Minny will send Simeon Woods Richardson to the bump in hopes of stealing the series finale, while San Diego has struggling knuckleballer Matt Waldron set to start. Our top Twins vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks are calling for Waldron to continue having trouble on August 21.
Twins vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Matt Waldron Under 17.5 outs (-103 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
San Diego Padres starter Matt Waldron is in the midst of a serious slide with a 5.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 4.39 xFIP over his past nine outings, and opposing hitters have squared him up for a healthy 38.4% hard-hit rate. A trip to Coors Field in his past start brought his numbers up even higher to respective 8.24, 1.37, 5.40, and 40.0% marks through his latest four appearances.
Waldron has also pitched to the Under in this market in four of his past five outings, recording 17 or fewer outs in each of his past four starts. Additionally, the 27-year-old righty was never a force in the minors with a 7.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through 92 1/3 innings at Triple A last season.
The primary issue with Waldron has been the long ball, and he’s surrendered 11 round trippers through his past nine starts. His 38.2% ground-ball rate is 16th-lowest among qualified starters this season, and his home runs per nine innings have soared from 0.71 through his first 16 starts to 2.02 across his past nine.
The Minnesota Twins have also been solid against righties with a seventh-ranked .323 on-base percentage and .324 wOBA, and they’ve averaged 5.78 runs per game across their past nine. I’m expecting the Minny bats to give Waldron trouble on Wednesday afternoon.
Twins vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Matt Waldron Under 17.5 outs
Padres moneyline
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Even with Waldron’s highlighted struggles, I do expect him to pitch well enough to keep the Padres in the game. Minnesota starter Simeon Woods Richardson has struggled on the road with his 4.27 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 4.75 xFIP, well above his respective 3.29, 1.04, and 4.00 home marks. With the Padres rolling offensively, it’ll be a tough test for the young righty.
San Diego sports a fifth-ranked .329 wOBA against righties for the season, and they’ve been scorching out of the All-Star break with a 22-6 record and overall .344 mark. Outfielder Jackson Merrill has also been a force against right-handed hurlers with a .317 batting average, .372 wOBA, and .212 ISO. He’s on a 7-for-20 run at the dish with three runs and five RBI to hit the Over in this market in six consecutive games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Padres odds
Twins vs Padres live odds
Twins vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota +110 | San Diego -119
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a minor move to the San Diego side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle shifting from an opening of Padres -119 to -123 as of Wednesday morning.
- The line movement is consistent across shops, and bet365 has made an even larger adjustment with the Friars moving from an opening line of -120 to -130.
- This total has been on the move since opening with back-and-forth action.
- Pinnacle opened at 8.5 (-101/-111) and has returned to the same 8.5 total (+101/-114) after hanging both 9 and 8 offerings.
Twins vs Padres trend
Waldron has recorded 17 or fewer outs in each of his past four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Padres.
Twins vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, SDPA |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods Richardson (3-3, 3.78 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (7-9, 4.00 ERA) |
Twins vs Padres latest injuries
Twins vs Padres weather
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