The Kentucky Wildcats will close out their home season tonight at Rupp Arena, hosting the LSU Tigers in an SEC matchup.
Amari Williams played quite well in the Wildcats' recent loss to Auburn, and my LSU vs Kentucky predictions explain why he’s set to do so again on Senior Night.
Read more in my college basketball picks for March 4.
LSU vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Amari Williams Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
In my preview last week for the Kentucky Wildcats against Oklahoma, I backed Amari Williams to score 13+ points as my best bet. And while it didn’t hit, I’m going back to the well for many of the same reasons in an even better matchup against the LSU Tigers.
While the play didn’t cash for us, much of the analysis was spot on. The problem was Williams got into early foul trouble, and then compounded it with a third foul before halftime. As such, he played just 19 minutes but still put eight points.
Williams is producing at levels near unheard of when he's on the floor. While Auburn beat the Wildcats soundly this weekend, it wasn’t Williams' fault.
He out-played star big man Johni Broome for much of the game, and flirted with his second-triple double of the season behind 13 points, 14 rebounds, and seven assists in 31 minutes. Williams could’ve had more points had he finished at the line, as he made 7 of 13 attempts from the line.
According to College Basketball Reference, Williams is the only player in the last 50 years to average at least 19 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists per 40 minutes. He’s currently on pace to finish with one of the best P/R/A per 40 metrics in the history of the SEC.
Tuesday night is Senior Night, and it will be his final appearance at Rupp Arena in front of a fanbase that has grown to adore him. His matchup with LSU sets the stage for him to go out with a bang against a defense struggling to defend the paint.
The Tigers are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in college basketball. Mississippi State beat them by 12 points this weekend, posting an offensive rebound rate of just under 32%. But their previous two games also saw defeats, and Tennessee and Florida both notch OR% rates north of 45%.
LSU also doesn’t draw a ton of fouls. The Tigers take more than 43% of their shots from beyond the arc, and over their last three games have drawn an average of 14 fouls per contest. More importantly, none of their opponents saw bigs getting into foul trouble.
That was huge for Mississippi State, as the Bulldogs made 14 of 16 attempts at the rim. And Florida, an offense similar to Kentucky’s, made 19 baskets from close range.
Williams has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games — the Oklahoma game being the outlier — and has improved his OR% during conference play.
With the absence of Jaxson Robinson, and an LSU front line that will give him plenty of chances to score, 13 points is a floor that is too low in my opinion. Bank on him reaching it, and look at his alternate total of 15 points at +160.
LSU vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Amari Williams Over 12.5 points
Amari Williams Over 9.5 rebounds
Amari Williams Over 3.5 assists
I’m fully invested in this matchup for Williams, and I’m backing him to fill the stat sheet again. The Tigers allow opponents to score nearly 42% of their points inside the paint, an area where Williams thrives. He often notches assists from the high post to cutters at the rim. He has 16 assists over his past three games and will get another 4+ here.
LSU ranks just 159th in offensive rebound rate, while the Wildcats are sitting just outside the Top 40 in defensive rebound rate. Florida big man Rueben Cinyelu had 13 rebounds against the Tigers last weekend, including seven at the offensive end.
The Tigers will have similar problems dealing with Williams, as he reaches double-digit boards for the seventh time in 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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LSU vs Kentucky odds
LSU vs Kentucky live odds
LSU vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: LSU +12.5 | Kentucky -12.5
- Moneyline: LSU +525 | Kentucky -750
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
LSU vs Kentucky betting trend to know
LSU has hit the team total Under in nine of their last 13 away games (+4.25 Units / 29% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Kentucky.
How to watch LSU vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
LSU vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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