Duquesne vs Illinois Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Shannon's Star Rising in March Madness

The No. 11 Duquesne Dukes were effectively designed to shut down BYU on Thursday. Everything the Cougars liked to do, Duquesne specialized in stopping.

That will not be a problem for the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini, who are heavy favorites in tonight's March Madness odds. Their offense is not only lethal, but it is also balanced. Led by one of the best scorers in the country, Illinois is comfortable scoring at all levels. Terrence Shannon Jr.’s efficiency inside the paint, in particular, will collapse the Dukes’ defense and set up the Illini for a trip to the Sweet Sixteen in the East Region of the March Madness bracket.

Let’s trust Shannon again in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Duquesne vs. Illinois on Saturday, March 23.

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Duquesne vs Illinois best odds

Duquesne vs Illinois picks and predictions

Terrence Shannon Jr. made us worry on Thursday. His points prop was set at 23.5 and it looked like easy work when he had 19 points at halftime. But then he begin to defer to his teammates, and the Illinois Fighting Illini were running up the margin. He did not need to take over, and at some point, logic said he would rest on the bench.

Finally, Shannon hit a 3-pointer to reach 26 points with only about five minutes left in the game, and that once-surefire prop win did indeed profit. In the long run, Shannon may have done us a favor by not pouring in 35 against Morehead State.

His points prop did not move. It remains at 23.5, some books jumping to just 24.

Shortly after he returned from a six-game suspension from the program in January — following an arrest in Kansas stemming from sexual battery allegations in September — Shannon found a groove on the offensive end that could single-handedly drive Illinois into the Final Four.

Since February 10, he has scored 25 or more points in 10 of 13 games, including each of his last five games, averaging 30.6 in the last two weeks. Illinois is running through Shannon, his possession usage around 32% in this stretch compared to his season rate of 27.5%. Only 16 players had usage rates of 32% across the season. The Illini have become the Terrence Shannon Jr. Show.

And it’s working. Illinois has won five straight games, going 4-1 against the spread in doing so.

That’s what happens when your best player is so well-rounded offensively that no defense can truly shut him down. Shannon gets to the free throw line plenty, ranking No. 16 in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, according to Ken Pomeroy. He makes 36% of his 3s, sinking 2.5 of them per game. Yet he is at his best inside the arc, raising his effective field goal percentage to 55.9%.

That kind of all-levels scoring will break the Duquesne Dukes defense. The Dukes devastate opponents’ looks from deep first and foremost, limiting them and then making any 3-pointers so ugly that Atlantic 10 opponents hit just 29.5% of them.

Shannon will not care. He will drive. He will pull up in the paint. He will work in transition. He will get to the free throw line. He plays a 1990s version of guard, one not dependent on 3s, yet one that is pouring in the points these days.

My best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Duquesne vs Illinois same-game parlay

Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 23.5 points

Terrence Shannon Jr. Under 2.5 made 3s

Illinois -10

+700 at DraftKings

This is effectively a Shannon specialty, one that would have cashed in the first round but for that last late 3-pointer. He threaded this exact needle, scoring at least 24 points while hitting no more than a pair of 3-pointers, to open the Big Ten Tournament last week. And this counter-intuitive combination forces sportsbooks’ parlay algorithms to escalate the payout.

Duquesne making life miserable at the arc will only embolden Shannon, sending him into drives and away from those shots.

If Shannon dictates the game, it should be assumed the Illini bread-and-butter — its offense — hums nicely enough to cover easily.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Duquesne vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

Illinois opened as a 9.5-point favorite when some early markets opened on Thursday, reaching -10 by Friday morning. Advanced numbers agree with that spread. They also agreed with setting the Illini as 11-point favorites in the first round against Morehead State, when Illinois won by 16, a margin that was 24 with just 1:34 remaining.

This second-round total opened at 149 and fell to 148 on Friday morning, a reflection of Duquesne’s pace preferences, in the bottom third of the country.

Duquesne vs Illinois betting trend to know

Illinois has cashed the Over in all four of its postseason games by an average of 18 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duquesne vs. Illinois.

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Duquesne vs Illinois game info

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