Grambling State vs Montana State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: First Four Teams Aim for March Madness Bid

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After shocking their rival Montana Grizzlies in the Big Sky Tournament championship game, the Montana State Bobcats have reached the March Madness bracket for the third straight season and take on a Grambling State Tigers program that dominated the SWAC.

In this First Four game, the March Madness odds have the Bobcats favored by four against the Tigers in what should be a low-scoring game between two of the lesser offenses to reach the NCAA Tournament this season.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Grambling State vs. Montana State on Wednesday, March 20.

Grambling State vs Montana State best odds

Grambling State vs Montana State picks and predictions

Neither of these programs is expected to make much noise in the NCAA Tournament as No. 16 seeds that rank near the bottom of KenPom. The Grambling State Tigers have the third-lowest adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of any team suiting up for March Madness (297th), and the Montana State Bobcats aren’t much better — they have the fourth-lowest-ranked offense (234th). 

While the Bobcats are able to score, putting up 75.1 points per game this season, it’s a team that relies heavily on the three. Montana State ranks 37th in the country in 3-pointers made per game (9.0) and 32nd in 3-point percentage (36.7%). Coach Matt Logie’s style of play can get the team in sticky situations when those deep shots aren’t hitting.

The Bobcats prioritize finding opportunities from behind the arc, so much so that the program ranks 317th in the country in 2-point attempts and hits just 17.8 per game. As a result of Montana State living and dying by its perimeter game, it doesn’t get to the free throw line often — just 17.1 times per game — and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country.

The Bobcats rank eighth-last in college basketball in rebounds per game (30.6) and third-last in offensive rebounds (6.8), meaning they get very few second-chance opportunities per possession. While Montana State is favored, its offense might have issues against a Grambling team known for its defense.

The Tigers allow just 69.0 points per game, 90th in the country, and had that number drop to 65.1 in SWAC play. Grambling has allowed 67 points or fewer in 14 of its last 21 games and matches up well against the Bobcats’ 3-point heavy attack.

Donte Jackson’s program allows the 49th-fewest 3-point attempts per game in the country (19.1) and just 6.5 3-point makes per game. That swarming perimeter defense should be capable of slowing the Bobcats down to some extent.

Grambling can also force a Montana State offense that averages 11.6 turnovers per game into mistakes with its aggressive defense. The Tigers rank 86th in the country in steals per game (7.4), and guard Tra’Michael Moton was averaging 2.3 himself in SWAC play.

Grambling’s defense isn’t the only thing that should lend well to the Under, its offense is slow and inefficient. The Tigers rank 314th in the country in adjusted tempo and average just 53.9 shots per game, 10th-fewest in the country.

Despite its methodical pace, the Grambling offense doesn’t even do a great job setting up its scorers, averaging the fifth-fewest assists per game in college basketball (9.8). And its lack of size doesn’t help in the rebounding department, averaging just 32.2 per game.

As a result of its style of play, Jackson’s squad averages 67.6 points per game and when it does shoot, the outcome is mixed. The Tigers shoot 44% from the floor and 48.1% from two while hitting the 17th-fewest threes per game in the country.

That bodes well for a Montana State defense that has had trouble in the paint against bigger teams this season. While the Bobcats allow teams to shoot 53.5% from two, the Tigers are one of the few teams in the country that doesn’t have a size mismatch against them.

What this Bobcats defense does well is limit 3-point opportunities — holding teams to 6.6 per game — and put pressure on ball handlers. Led by Robert Ford’s 2.9 steals, Montana State is 41st in the country with 8.2 steals per game.

Overall, both of these teams play swarming defense, limit 3-point opportunities, and take few shots per game, all factors to support the Under.

My best bet: Under 134.5 (-110 at bet365)

Grambling State vs Montana State same-game parlay

Under 134.5 

Tra’Michael Moton Under 13.5 points

Robert Ford Over 6.5 rebounds

+400 at bet365

This season, Moton averaged just 11.8 points per game for Grambling State. His line is getting a bump heading into this First Four game thanks to a strong finish in SWAC play, but this Montana State defense should be capable of keeping him at bay.

The Tigers offense won’t be doing him any favors either, with its slow tempo and issues rebounding. Those rebounding inefficiencies should help Robert Ford hit the Over on his rebounding line.

Ford is the Bobcats’ leading rebounder this season with 7.6 per game and will be dealing with a Tigers team that ranks just 343rd in defensive rebounds per game (22.5) and 236th in offensive rebounds per game (9.6).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grambling State vs Montana State spread and Over/Under analysis

Given Grambling State’s issues on the offensive end, Montana State opened as a 3.5 to 4-point favorite against the Tigers. While the spread ballooned up to 5.5 in the Bobcats’ direction, it’s since come back down to 3.5 at most sportsbooks.

Montana State is 16-15 ATS this season and has covered in six of its last eight games. Meanwhile, Grambling State is 17-14 ATS and has covered in three straight outings.

The game total opened as low as 133.5 and has come up to between 134.5 and 135.5 at most books. The Bobcats are 17-14 betting the Over this season, but Grambling is a far more pedestrian 15-16.

Grambling State vs Montana State betting trend to know

Grambling has only hit the Over in 14 of its last 30 games (-3.60 Units / -11% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Grambling State vs. Montana State.

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