Morehead State vs Illinois Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Shannon Shines Under March Madness Spotlight

March Madness odds always produce stars.

One of those already began to reveal himself last week, and now Terrence Shannon Jr. should lead the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini to a run into the second weekend of the March Madness bracket.

Shannon is already on a heater, and the No. 14 Morehead State Eagles do not have any single defender ready to slow down the Illinois veteran today.

Shannon alone may push the Illini to cover this 11.5-point spread in our March Madness picks, a reflection in part of the selection committee under-seeding Illinois by a line. Our college basketball picks will focus on Shannon as we preview Morehead State vs. Illinois in this first-round East Region matchup.

Morehead State vs Illinois best odds

Morehead State vs Illinois picks and predictions

Terrence Shannon Jr. has found a new height of sustained production for the Illinois Fighting Illini.

The fifth-year veteran — 132 career games and counting — averaged 17.2 points last season, but he reached 30 points only once, in the third game of the season against Monmouth. That marked a career-high before Shannon poured in 33 against FAU this past December, also his first time this year notching 25 points.

Shannon then scored at least 25 points in just one of his next eight games, missing six games due to a suspension from the program following an arrest in Kansas stemming from sexual battery allegations in September. Even upon his return to the lineup upon court order, Shannon took a week to regain his form. Once he did so, he hardly looked back.

Since February 10, Shannon has scored 25 or more in nine of 12 games. He has reached that mark in each of his last four games, averaging 31.8 points in the final week of the season, including 34.0 per game in the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois is running through Shannon, his possession usage jumping to 33-35% in the Big Ten Tournament and sitting above 30% in seven of those 12 games. For context, his season rate was 27.5%, No. 161 in the country per Ken Pom. Only 52 players had season-long averages north of 30%, and Shannon’s work last week would have put him in the Top 10 across the season.

The Morehead State Eagles are a quality team, far from the worst in the tournament. They won the Ohio Valley Conference in the regular season and were, by far, the best team in the OVC by advanced metrics. However, the Eagles' defense is an overall weakness and not one equipped to keep up with a Big Ten power like Illinois. 

The Eagles’ best defense may be that they chase opponents off the 3-point line and limit second chances. However, Shannon does not live on the offensive boards and makes just 2.5 three-pointers per game. The Fighting Illini guard should have no trouble hanging a crooked number on Morehead State, setting a tone for an extended look at the Chicago native this month.

My best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 23.5 points (-117 at BetRivers)

Morehead State vs Illinois same-game parlay

Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 24.5 points

Terrence Shannon Jr. Under 2.5 made 3s

Illinois -11.5

+800 at DraftKings

Morehead State runs opponents off the arc, giving up 3-point attempts on just 31.2% of opponents’ field goal attempts in conference play, a full six percentage points below the national average. Shannon threaded this exact needle during the Big Ten tournament, scoring a bounty of points but hitting only a pair of threes,

This creates a counter-intuitive headache for the sportsbooks’ algorithms, leading to an inflated payout in our same-game parlay. If Shannon is dictating the game on his own terms, it is reasonable to assume Illinois will enjoy a healthy cushion.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Morehead State vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

When the bracket was released on Sunday, the Eagles opened as 13.5-point underdogs, a number that fell to +12.5 by the end of the night, and to +11.5 on Monday morning. Advanced numbers view this as a 12-point game, so the spread is right on that mark.

The total hit the market at 149.5 and slipped as low as 146.5 on Sunday night, before rallying to 147 on Monday and 148 on Tuesday. Illinois trends toward the Over, cashing 22 Overs in its last 27 games.

Morehead State vs Illinois betting trend to know

Illinois cashed the Over in all of its Big Ten Tournament contests by an average of 21.8 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Morehead State vs. Illinois.

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Morehead State vs Illinois game info

Morehead State vs Illinois key injuries

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