The No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers face off against the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the NCAA Tournament this afternoon.
The Blue Devils have been dominant on defense and my Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke predictions are betting on them to shut down an overmatched foe in the opening round.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region clash on Friday, March 21, with tipoff at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Who will win Mount St. Mary's vs Duke?
There was concern about the status of Cooper Flagg but even without the Wooden Award Favorite, Duke would have been way too much for Mount St. Mary's. With Flagg now expected to suit up, there's zero chance for the Mountaineers.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded the field in 1985, a No. 1 seed has only been upset twice — Virginia in 2018 and Purdue in 2023. The Blue Devils are too well-balanced, deep, and efficient on both ends of the floor to join that infamous duo.
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke prediction
My best bet: Mount St. Mary's team total Under 54.5 (-125 at bet365)
All eyes have been on Duke Blue Devils freshman phenom Cooper Flagg who sprained his ankle in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal. On Thursday, it was announced that Flagg will be available for this clash which will be a boost for Duke on both ends of the floor.
The media was so focused on Duke's injury concerns that you might not have noticed that the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers are missing a pair of key players. They lost forward Terrell Ard Jr. (10.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg) to a season-ending injury at the end of February, and guard Carmelo Pacheco (9.5 ppg, 46.4 3PT%) is also sidelined.
While Duke has the depth to rest someone like Flagg without too much of a downgrade, Mount Saint Mary's will really miss its best shooter and sixth man.
The Mountaineers booked their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the MAAC Tournament but looked ugly on offense during that title run. They scored 62 points on 37% shooting against Marist in the first round, had just 57 points on 38 FG% versus Merrimack in the semifinals, and dropped 63 points on 42 FG% against Iona in the finals.
If they couldn't shoot against opponents in one of the weaker conferences in Div 1, they're going to get stuffed by an elite defense like Duke. Keep in mind that during their non-conference schedule, the Mountaineers were held to 51 points against Maryland, 51 points versus Georgetown, and 56 points against George Mason.
The Mountaineers are 359th in the country in turnover rate (21.2%) and they won't be able to find open looks against a Duke squad that holds foes to just 43.4% shooting inside the arc — the third-best mark in the country.
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Mount St. Mary's team total Under 54.5
Cooper Flagg Under 19.5 points
Kon Kneuppel Over 16.5 points
Given how nagging ankle injuries can be, and the possibility of a blowout, I doubt we'll see a full workload from Flagg. That's why I'm fading him on his points.
That should mean more shots for Kneuppel who will take advantage of a weak Mountaineers perimeter defense. Kneuppel has scored 17+ points in five-straight games and his scoring numbers typically see a bump when Flagg takes a back seat on offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mount St. Mary's vs Duke odds
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke live odds
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke opening odds
- Spread: Mount St. Mary's +32.5 | Duke -32.5
- Moneyline: Mount St. Mary's +1,800 | Duke -8,000
- Over/Under: Over 141 | Under 141
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke betting trend to know
The Mountaineers have hit the game total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Mount St. Mary's vs. Duke.
How to watch Mount St. Mary's vs Duke
| Region | East |
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Mount St. Mary's vs Duke key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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