The North Carolina State Wolfpack will try to continue its miraculous March Madness bracket run on Sunday as they take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight on Sunday evening.
North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight straight games, turning what looked like a lost season into one of the more memorable March Madness campaigns in recent history. Duke (27-8) is coming off a 54-51 upset win over the No. 1 seed Houston Cougars and is looking to reach its third Final Four in the past decade.
These teams split two late-season meetings, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the rubber match, where is Duke is a heavy favorite in the March Madness odds. We’ll break down which side has the edge in our free March Madness picks and predictions for NC State vs. Duke on Sunday, March 31.
For more on this game, check out my NC State vs. Duke prop picks!
NC State vs Duke odds
NC State
Duke Blue DevilsPinnacle odds only available in Canada.
NC State vs Duke picks and predictions
What the NC State Wolfpack have accomplished over the last three weeks is nothing short of extraordinary. Nothing about this team suggests that it is an elite team on the national level. Solid, sure. But a team with a chance to make the Final Four? That would have been inconceivable just a month ago.
NC State has been more consistent on both sides of the ball during this run. It has scored 79.3 points per game while allowing just 69.8 — about three points better than its season average in both regards. The Wolfpack have even shown they can beat elite teams during this stretch, scoring wins over the North Carolina Tar Heels, Marquette Golden Eagles, and yes, the Duke Blue Devils.
All of that is worthy of praise, and teams can certainly improve over the course of a season. But we’ve seen teams go on runs like this before, and it never means that the next game will continue that trend. In other words, a hot streak only lasts until it doesn’t.
Instead, we can look at the overall picture and see that of the teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament, NC State is by far the weakest, even after accounting for all these wins. KenPom.com still has the Wolfpack ranked 49th overall, being good but not great on both sides of the ball.
Duke, on the other hand, is a Top 5 squad with an elite offense and an excellent defense. The Blue Devils come at opponents with a variety of weapons, from big man Kyle Filipowski (16.6 ppg) to guards Jeremy Roach (14.0 ppg) and Jared McCain (13.8 ppg). Duke was able to overcome an incredible Houston defense and won its other two NCAA Tournament games in blowouts.
This has been a great run for the Wolfpack, but bettors should rely on data, not sentiment. Duke is the better team here by double-digits, and in a big game, the Blue Devils’ variety of weapons should overwhelm NC State. I’m taking Duke to cover tonight.
My best bet: Duke -7 (-110 at DraftKings)
NC State vs Duke same-game parlay
Duke -7
Over 140.5
Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 rebounds
Along with taking Duke to win tonight, I want to throw in a bet on the Over for my same-game parlay. These teams have played two games, and both have ended at exactly 143 points. I’m dropping to an alternate total that’s a couple points lower for safety, but I still like the idea of this game playing out similarly.
I’m also taking Filipowski to fill up the stats sheet with at least nine rebounds. Filipowski has had at least that number in three of his last four games, including the last meeting with NC State.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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NC State vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis
- Duke opened tonight’s game as a 6-point favorite. Duke -7 is now the consensus spread, with -110 odds on both sides of the line.
- Duke has put up a 21-14 record against the spread this season. NC State has been only average for bettors, going 19-19-1 ATS.
- The total for this game opened at 143 points. That number has come down slightly, with the Over/Under sitting at a flat 142 points with -110 odds on each side.
- The Under holds a 22-13 advantage when Duke plays this season. The Over has the 22-16-1 edge in NC State’s games on the year.
NC State vs Duke betting trend to know
Duke is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Duke.
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NC State vs Duke game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
