The March Madness odds have moved in one direction this week: away from the Houston Cougars and toward the Duke Blue Devils. The Cougars opened as 4.5-point underdogs on Sunday, but by Monday afternoon, that had settled at +5.
More notably, the Blue Devils have moved from relatively short -210 favorites on the moneyline to the increasingly steep price of -260.
Any March Madness picks should at least wonder: Can the Cougars pull off this upset?
Three reasons why Houston will beat Duke
1. More experienced overall
It is a common compliment to suggest freshmen are no longer freshmen since they have played 38 games by now. That is fair, and Duke is enjoying a 15-game winning streak in large part because three key freshmen have matured into their roles.
However, it still needs to be acknowledged that the Blue Devils are playing three true freshmen in a rotation that may barely exceed six players on Saturday. Only junior Tyrese Proctor has played in an NCAA Tournament before this one, seeing six games in his first two seasons. Perhaps pertinently, he went 1-of-9 from deep in the second weekend last year, including 1-of-4 against Houston.
Proctor has admittedly found a shooting rhythm in this tournament, going 16-of-25 thus far, but none of those defenses plagued shooters like this Cougars’ perimeter defense does.
No other Blue Devil has considered stakes like this before. Perhaps there is a reason a clear No. 1 overall prospect has not reached the national championship game since Anthony Davis in 2012. Notably, Davis was unleashed as a defensive force that season, not outright relied upon for his offense.
Cooper Flagg currently dictates Duke’s offense in nearly all regards. He's reminiscent of the Zion Williamson & RJ Barrett pairing in 2019, one that then could not carry enough of the offense in an Elite Eight loss to Michigan State’s veteran defense, the freshmen duo combining for 45 points but also 12 turnovers.
It would be fair to describe Houston’s defense as “veteran,” given it returned the eighth-most minutes to the roster this season, has enjoyed health this season, and features four players with genuine NCAA Tournament experience before this current run.
And that does not even delve into Kelvin Sampson’s edge on Duke head coach Jon Scheyer. The latter is in only his third year as a head coach and his first Final Four, while Sampson is in his 23rd season and third Final Four.
Is the third time the charm?
2. More experience in close games
Some of this thought ties to how thoroughly Duke dominated the ACC. That should not be twisted into a negative, but the ACC’s relative struggles should be seen as a negative.
Ken Pomeroy considers the ACC to be the fifth-best conference this season, and a distant fifth at that. The gap between the ACC and the Big 12 at No. 3 is greater than the gap between the ACC and Conference USA at No. 9.
That is a big part of how Duke went 22-1 against ACC competition. Since Dec. 1, the Blue Devils have played just 10 games with a spread within three buckets, going 7-3 against the spread in those moments, 9-1 outright, and the Over cashing in half of them.
Houston also played just 10 games with a spread within three buckets, going 7-1-2 ATS in them, 10-0 SU, and cashing the Under in eight.
Looking beyond gambling expectations reveals the lack of tested mettle in Durham. The Blue Devils have gone 2-1 outright in games decided by six points or fewer since Dec. 1. They were hardly ever put to the fire.
Meanwhile, the Cougars have gone 7-1 outright in games decided by six points or fewer since Dec. 1.
If this Final Four matchup is as close as expected, those clutch moments should greatly favor the underdogs.
3. The Clemson Template
Clemson beat Duke 77-71 on Feb. 8, a six-point underdog mounting a stout second-half comeback. How did the Tigers do it?
They grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, a rate of 42.3% of those available compared to the 26.7% Duke gave up this season. Those created 15 second-chance points.
Who is one of the absolute best offensive rebounding teams in the country? Houston.
Clemson forced Duke and specifically Cooper Flagg into an inefficient showing in the interior: Blue Devils going 12-of-31 (38.7%) inside and Flagg just 3-of-11 (27.3%), far below season averages of 58.5% and 52.4%, respectively.
Who ranks No. 5 in the country in opposing 2-point field goal percentage at a confining 44.5%? Houston.
And the Tigers shortened the game, preferring to play at a slow pace and forcing opponents to take longer offensively than any other team in the country did this season. For Duke to find a look at the hoop, it had to work that much longer, part of how the game had only 63 possessions.
Who is the fifth-slowest team in the country, one that forces opponents to take 18.7 seconds on the average possession, within reach of Clemson’s 19.1? Houston.
If the veteran-led and veteran-coached Cougars attack the offensive glass, protect the paint, and slow things down enough to make this a two-possession game late — they should pull off this Final Four upset.
