Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Langborg Stuns March Madness Darlings

The age-old definition of insanity is to do the same thing but expect a different result, right?

Expecting the No. 8 Florida Atlantic Owls to find their groove for March Madness odds this season may fall under that umbrella. The Owls returned their entire roster from their Final Four team last year... only to faceplant as this season hit its home stretch, hence the 8-seed.

Their reward for that disappointment is a Round 1 date in the March Madness bracket with the No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats, a team led by star guard Boo Buie, now finishing his career without some of his best-supporting contributors. Nonetheless, the Wildcats finished the season on an upswing, playing its way into an at-large bid despite a loss in its first game in the Big Ten Tournament.

We ponder putting our faith in the depleted Wildcats or doubling down on insanity with the Owls in our free March Madness picks for Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic today.

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic best odds

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic picks and predictions

If injuries had not befallen the Wildcats and they still ended up in this spot, the decision to bet against them would be clear. The dichotomy of that suggestion of now betting on Northwestern is it may have needed those injuries in order to get into the NCAA Tournament.

Before senior point guard Ty Berry tore his meniscus in early February, the Wildcats were tracking toward the NIT, in the range of advanced metrics where teams like Ohio State, Utah and Iowa finished the season.

But then Berry went down, and someone had to pick up his workload, one that featured a remarkably efficient offensive rating and an effective field goal percentage of 58.8, high enough it would have threatened the country’s Top 100 if he had played enough. The assumption may be that Buie stepped into that role, but Buie was already handling near-maximum duties.

Enter veteran Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg, in his fifth year academically speaking, even if it is only his third full season of action because of the Ivy League’s treatment of the pandemic.

Before rattling off some before/after stats from Langborg, a quick clarification: Berry suffered his meniscus injury after playing only nine minutes against Nebraska on Feb. 7. That game will count toward Langborg’s performance after his injury. And that performance should not and will not include when Langborg was ejected for a flagrant foul after playing only 10 minutes at Rutgers on Feb. 15.

In the 10 games before Berry’s injury, all Big Ten games following Christmas, Langborg averaged 10.1 points and 2.1 assists. In his next seven games, Langborg averaged 15.3 points and 3.3 assists.

More dramatically, Langborg had handled the ball to end at least 20% of Northwestern possessions in just three of those 10 games before stepping into a starting role. Afterward, he did so in six of seven, the only exception being when foul trouble took him off the ball against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.

Maybe Langborg would have eventually found that role regardless. But when Berry’s shots and possessions needed to go somewhere else, sending them to Langborg changed Northwestern’s trajectory. Before then, the Wildcats’ offense ranked No. 38 in the country in adjusted efficiency, per barttorvik.com. It gained 3.5 points per 100 possessions in the 10 games since, rising to No. 30, both numbers that would be even better if Langborg had not missed the bulk of three games.

And better offense leads to better defense, that ranking jumping from No. 88 to No. 47.

If Northwestern had played like this all season, it probably would have earned a 6- or a 7-seed, not this spot in an 8-9 game. Looking at the season of work, the Wildcats were properly seeded, but giving some credence to a point guard who reached the Sweet Sixteen last year — scoring 18.7 points per game in doing so — suddenly reveals Northwestern as a team to consider this March.

That kind of improvement creates value in a supposed toss-up game with a spread within a bucket.

My best bet: Northwestern moneyline (+130 at Caesars)

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic same-game parlay

Northwestern moneyline

Florida Atlantic team total Under 71.5

Ryan Langborg Over 12.5 points

+368 at FanDuel

If that was a long spiel to discuss an Ivy League transfer, then realize his effect goes beyond those boosts in averages. With Northwestern’s offense improving, it can slow down pace even further. Before Berry’s injury, the Wildcats averaged 65.2 possessions per game, No. 335 in the country. After it, that somehow plummeted to 63.6, No. 348 in the country.

Made buckets force opponents to slow down, simply enough, and that is what Northwestern prefers. It should emphasize that further this week, given the argument that FAU has more talent. Fewer possessions will reduce that gap’s impact. And they’ll lead the Owls to struggle to break 70.

In that regard, Lanborg’s points prop is correlated to FAU’s team total, even if that defies immediate assumption.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic spread and Over/Under analysis

The Owls opened as 1.5-point favorites when this matchup was announced on Sunday, and by Monday’s lunch, that had risen to -2.5. The only logical explanation for that move was faith in FAU to return to last spring’s form, when it won 11 straight games before losing in the Final Four.

And tournament experience is absolutely vital at this point, but it is a hard concept to believe in with a team that just lost to Temple in a tournament setting.

The total opened at 141 and climbed to 142 on Tuesday, then falling back to 141.5. While that movement is minimal, it does coincide with the spread’s movement, the Owls preferring to play fast, and thus any edge trending their way also suggests the total should rise.

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic betting trend to know

The Wildcats have gone 7-3 against the spread since Berry’s injury, including 4-1 as underdogs with two outright wins. Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic.

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Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic game info

Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic key injuries

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