South Dakota State vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Cleaning the Glass in the March Madness Opener

Did the No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits deserve better than facing the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones? Arguably. The Jackrabbits may have been able to claim a 14-seed in the March Madness bracket and a chance to perhaps face Baylor, but that would be about the extent of their grievance.

That said, the Cyclones may be the best 2-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament, and their defense will set out to make life miserable for South Dakota State. Iowa State has the nation’s best defense by some metrics, and its walloping of Houston in the Big 12 championship should have sent a message to anyone unlucky enough to face the Cyclones: The game will be slow, it will be painful, and every point you score will be hard-earned.

There is exactly one player in a Jackrabbits uniform who may be ready for that kind of misery. We will spend tonight night fretting over our March Madness picks with William Kyle’s success on the glass the driving force of our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview the March Madness odds and break down South Dakota State vs Iowa State.

South Dakota State vs Iowa State best odds

South Dakota State vs Iowa State picks and predictions

You can be forgiven for never hearing of South Dakota State sophomore center William Kyle. Only four schools offered a scholarship to the Nebraska product, with Longwood the only team to make the NCAA Tournament this year. His recruiting profile is worth mentioning here because that is how we quickly realize how much Kyle has progressed.

He weighed 200 pounds as a senior in high school, he was listed at 215 last season, and now Kyle is at 230 pounds. He has become more of a college-ready body, quite literally. At this point, the 6-foot-9 Kyle has a physical edge most nights and South Dakota State leans on that.

Kyle grabs a significantly higher share of available rebounds than anyone else in the rotation. Kyle found 9.3 percent of available offensive rebounds when he was on the court this season, the next closest rate among the Jackrabbits’ Top 7 players was 4.4. The same was true defensively, with Kyle tracking down 16.5 percent of available rebounds.

Now look at Iowa State. First of all, the Cyclones give up boards. They ranked last in the Big 12 in offensive rebound rate allowed, with opponents tracking down 33 percent of their own misses. That number was lower across the season (29.4 percent), but still worse than the national average.

Here is where recognizing Kyle’s physical growth warrants merit. He may be more of a Big 12-caliber body than anyone assumes out of the Summit League.

Additionally, Iowa State’s offense misses plenty of shots. By no means is it stellar. If wondering about the Cyclones’ bigger picture hopes, their struggles from beyond the arc may set a low ceiling on them this month and when Iowa State misses those shots, Kyle should collect the rebounds.

Only Robert Jones plays legitimate minutes for the Cyclones and stands taller than Kyle, 6-foot-10 and 255 pounds. Yet, Jones does not rebound at near the rate that Kyle does. The rest of the Iowa State rotation is somewhat dwarfed by Kyle, though 6-foot-7 senior Tre King fares well on the glass.

William Kyle finds misses with regularity. There will be many missed shots on Thursday night in Omaha. Kyle will benefit. For that matter, he will feel more at home than even Iowa State, being an Omaha native.

My best bet: William Kyle Over 6.5 rebounds (+118 at BetRivers)

South Dakota State vs Iowa State same-game parlay

William Kyle Over 6.5 rebounds

Under 134.5

South Dakota State +10 first half

+600 at BetRivers

Betting Kyle on the glass is a bet on missed shots. A bet on missed shots should equal a bet on an Under, right? Yes, this total is a low one, but that makes sense when the higher seed has one of the country’s top-two defenses. It makes further sense when sportsbooks have already been struggling to keep up with these falling totals.

Seven of Iowa State’s last eight games have gone Under the totals, the exception clearing 134.5 by 3.5 points thanks largely to the size of the blowout. The Cyclones gave up six points to Baylor in the final 1:23, all at the rim. Iowa State had stopped defending, up by 18 points when that stretch began. Otherwise, it would have been eight straight Unders for the Cyclones, those other seven falling short of their pregame totals by an average of 15.3 points.

Iowa State is not the only one. The last five South Dakota State games have all fallen short of their totals and by an average of 14.6 points.

Such a low-scoring game should include an ugly first-half score, one where perhaps Iowa State has overlooked its overmatched foe for a bit, needing halftime to kick into gear.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

South Dakota State vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

Sportsbooks opened this first-round matchup with a 16.5-point spread, a number that has fluctuated between 15.5 and 17 before settling at that opening number mark again.

The total plummeted upon opening at 134.5, dropping all the way to 132.5 before returning to 134.5 or 135, depending on your sportsbook. That aggressive move made sense in that these are two offenses leaving plenty to be desired, so initial doubt was deserved. Buying it back up to the opening number also tracks, simply given there should be a lower limit on a total with a team as talented as Iowa State is overall.

South Dakota State vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Iowa State has hit the first half Under in 11 of its last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for South Dakota State vs. Iowa State.

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