Washington State vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Cougars Offense Gets Swept Up

If you think some offensive showings have been rough to watch early on in this year’s March Madness, then perhaps look away when the No. 7 Washington State Cougars play the No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones tonight. However, in this instance, that will be more a reflection of two excellent defenses.

Iowa State may have the best defense in the country, entering the March Madness bracket with the No. 1 unit in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. In this exact matchup, given the March Madness odds, it should play even better.

So when you see Washington State doing its best Virginia or Colorado State or Washington Generals impression, credit the Cyclones more than you criticize the Cougars.

Wherever the onus should be assigned, expecting a low-scoring game thanks to the Cyclones’ demands determines our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Washington State vs Iowa State on Saturday, March 23, with tip set for 6:10 ET.

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Washington State vs Iowa State best odds

Washington State vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Iowa State’s top-tier defense does have flaws. It fouls too often, the fourth-highest rate in the Big 12 in conference play, significantly higher than the national averages. Most worrisome, it gave up offensive rebounds on 33% of missed shots by conference opponents, last in the Big 12.

On the surface, that should be costly against Washington State. The Cougars tracked down their own missed shots 31.7% of the time in Pac-12 play, No. 2 in the conference. Washington State may exceed that this weekend, but not because it wants to.

The Cyclones give up so many offensive rebounds because they force so many ill-advised deep shots. Opponents took 45% of their shots from beyond the arc, the 10th-highest rate in the country and 7.7 percentage points higher than the national average. Those opponents didn’t want to, they just didn’t have a choice.

Iowa State’s defense and length keep opponents out of the paint. Opponents do not get easy looks — the Cyclones’ average defensive possession length is longer than four-fifths of the country’s — and they eventually have to take contested 3s, hitting just 31.8% of them.

Long misses lead to long rebounds. That’s physics.

And long rebounds carom past traditional box outs, artificially inflating offensive rebounding rates. Yes, those offensive rebounds still create another chance at possession, but they are hardly as concerning as typical offensive boards under the rim.

Washington State will hate this Cyclones’ emphasis. The Cougars took 3s on only 31.8% of their possessions, No. 304 in the country. They made a pedestrian 34.3% of them. That latter number is tolerable, but it was inspired largely by their overall discretion. Without that discretion, when being forced to heave from deep by Iowa State’s defense, the misses will pile up.

Those misses can lead to offensive rebounds. The numbers at least worry they will. But the numbers don’t properly weigh that those offensive rebounds will just lead to more missed 3s from Washington State, eventually creating squandered possessions.

This Cyclones’ defensive weakness is not so much a weakness as it is a symptom. Do not let that symptom inspire any faith in the Cougars’ offense against the best defense in the country.

My best bet: Washington State team total Under 61.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Washington State vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Washington State team total Under 61.5

Isaac Jones Under 6.5 rebounds

Iowa State -6.5

+345 at DraftKings

Washington State benefiting from offensive rebounds off long misses will work counter to Isaac Jones’s securing boards. The 6-foot-9 senior is the Cougars’ best offensive rebounder, but those shots will fly back past him when Washington State is forced to shoot from deep over and over again.

All this suggestion that Iowa State will dictate how the Cougars approach offensively should strongly suggest that it will also dictate the game as a whole. Furthermore, the Cyclones have excelled this season when facing this particular type of talent gap, going 5-1 against the spread when favored by three buckets, spreads of -6.5 to -9.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Washington State vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

The books to first post this game opened with Iowa State favored by as much as 8.5. That number began to shrink right away, falling to -7.5 when more books opened up the market in Friday’s earliest hours and then to -6.5 around lunchtime to end the work week.

The total dropped in tandem, opening at 129 and settling at 128.5 in mid-morning.

Both moves can be explained by the expected pace of this second-round matchup. Iowa State plays at a moderate pace, nearly perfectly average, but Washington State drags things out, one of the 50 slowest teams in the country. Much of that tediousness is the Cougars’ offense, which will be only exacerbated by Iowa State’s defensive intensity.

Washington State vs Iowa State betting trend to know

Iowa State ended the regular season with five straight Unders, falling short of those pregame totals by an average of 18.3 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Washington State vs. Iowa State.

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Washington State vs Iowa State game info

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