The Xavier Musketeers needed a late comeback against Texas on Wednesday to make it into the traditional 64-team bracket of the NCAA Tournament, but that surge may have been enough to give the Musketeers enough momentum to pull off a Friday night upset.
The Illinois Fighting Illini have certainly shown they are more than capable of losing to lesser opponents. Even when losing to quality foes, the Illini have disappointed in the last month.
My Xavier vs. Illinois predictions and March Madness picks expect a bit of Madness when tip comes at 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday, March 21.
Who will win Xavier vs Illinois?
These teams have been trending in opposite directions in the last month. The easiest way to glean that is to look at their rankings on KenPom.com on Feb. 15 and see how they tracked. Illinois was No. 15 before three straight losses dropped it to No. 25 in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, four wins then not enough to push the Illini any higher than No. 20.
Meanwhile, Xavier was at No. 55 before a seven-game winning streak and 8-1 overall pushed the Musketeers up to No. 41 in the country.
Look a touch deeper via barttorvik.com’s ability to filter into specific date ranges. Before Feb. 15, Illinois ranked as Torvik’s No. 10 most efficient team, adjusted for opponents, with Xavier at No. 48. Each played eight games between then and this tournament. The Illini rank as the No. 46 team since Feb. 15, with the Musketeers at No. 20.
The greatest discrepancy comes via Illinois’s failing defense — falling to No. 139 in the country from No. 23 — which Xavier will gladly take advantage of, its offense always its better strength this year.
Xavier vs Illinois prediction
My best bet: Xavier moneyline (+135 at bet365)
The Illinois Fighting Illini’s struggles appear just by looking at a scoreboard. Losing to Northwestern, USC, Nebraska, and Rutgers is not exactly the look of a team to trust in the postseason, but perhaps even more concerning, the Illini do not simply lose; they get blown out. Going 4-4 in their last eight games featured all four losses by double-digits and three by 21+ points.
Giving up 110 points to Duke would be understandable for Mount Saint Mary’s but for Illinois? No wonder this defense has rated 10.3 points per 100 possessions worse since Feb. 15.
This Xavier Musketeers offense can pour it on in a heartbeat. Just on Wednesday, the Musketeers trailed the Longhorns by 10 points in the second half, and within four minutes, the game was tied after a 13-3 Xavier run. It took only another three minutes and 13 seconds for the Musketeers to score another 13 points.
Hanging 47 points in the second half stands out no matter the opponent, let alone against the No. 61 defense in the country by Pomeroy’s numbers.
Illinois fell from a possible No. 4 seed a month ago to this No. 6 seed because its defense collapsed. Xavier’s offense can keep up with the Illini, and its 39.1% from deep this season should underscore just how bad Illinois’ defense has become.
Xavier vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Xavier moneyline
Xavier team total Over 78.5
Zach Freemantle Over 0.5 threes
Since Illinois’ downfall began, six of eight opponents have cashed their team total Over. One of the exceptions was Iowa’s lousy offense, and then two weeks later, the Hawkeyes cleared their team total in the Big Ten Tournament by 16.5 points. Over the last month, Illini opponents have cleared their team totals by an average of 5.1 points, even when including the two Unders.
Anyone shooting well — like Xavier is — should easily exceed their team total.
Asking Zach Freemantle to hit a 3-pointer may be an unexpected thought, but the big man has hit 30.2% from deep this season despite going 1-for-5 on Wednesday against Texas. The five attempts prompted this bet more than the one make.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Xavier vs Illinois odds
Xavier vs Illinois live odds
Xavier vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Xavier +3.5 | Illinois -3.5
- Moneyline: Xavier +140 | Illinois -165
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Xavier vs Illinois betting trend to know
Illinois was a two-bucket favorite seven times this season, going 4-3 outright. If you bet the underdog moneyline shortly before tip in those seven games, you would have profited 1.42 units. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Illinois.
How to watch Xavier vs Illinois
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Xavier vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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