As much as we love the absurdities of college football, the mustard bottles in Tennessee, the beer bottles in Texas, and the emptied moonshine in West Virginia, there should be a limit. And LSU may have found it.
More precisely, the Louisiana government may have found the limit for delightful absurdities in our chaotic sport.
Because the folks that take care of Mike the Tiger have long worried about the stress he goes through when attending football games, Mike the VII has never been to Tiger Stadium on a Saturday. His predecessor grew agitated during pregame ceremonies back in 2014 and started to resist getting into the trailer to go to games, enough communication that his caretakers stepped in.
So now Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry has effectively subcontracted out the role. A different tiger, not the one that lives on campus and is adored by the LSU community, will be on the sidelines Saturday night.
Folks, a simple rule to go by: Any time the adjective “different” needs to precede the noun “tiger,” you are dabbling in a bad idea.
Here, a second rule to go by: Any time an SEC school is suggesting an idea for a college football environment is unwise, it must truly be off the rails.
But, anyway, on to the rest of Week 11 …
College football betting news for Week 11
- Genuine playoff implications
- Injury Assurance
- Bonus bet from Douglas
- Bonus bet from Douglas, pt. ii
- "College Football 134" value from Tuesday
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
Yours truly prefers to talk about more than the SEC, but the combination of the 12-team College Football Playoff and the top quarter of the SEC being a bit down this season has created weekly Playoff drama in the most corporate of college football conferences. With no one remaining unbeaten in the SEC, everyone is at risk of being eliminated from the Playoff on any given week.
That may sound extreme, but no one with two losses is assured of a Playoff spot, and no one with three losses should even dream of one.
In the past, this weekend’s two biggest SEC games would have had only one piece of intrigue: If Georgia loses, it will be out of the Playoff hunt.
But now, all four of Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and LSU have Playoff concerns on the line. For all four, a win should very nearly seal a Playoff bid, while a loss should pretty much promise the opposite.
You can very literally see my gears kicking into motion while @Covers_Caley discusses Alabama vs. LSU, sparking me to decide on a bet in the moment ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 8, 2024
LSU has trended the right way, Alabama hasn't, and it's a Saturday night in Death Valley ... pic.twitter.com/dI18TbFANN
Injury assurance
For a moment, this looked like it would become a “Bonus Bet” this week. When ESPN’s Pete Thamel confirmed Friday afternoon that Michigan cornerback Will Johnson will miss this weekend’s game at Indiana, a want arose to grab the Hoosiers at -14.
Sources: Michigan will again be without star cornerback Will Johnson this week against No. 8 Indiana. He hasn’t played since Michigan’s game against Illinois on Oct. 19. He’s dealing with a lower body injury. pic.twitter.com/qy71a7ACIZ
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 8, 2024
There were only a couple of sportsbooks still offering -14, but by the time the cursor was at this point, they had all moved to -14.5.
Should a cornerback move the market? Perhaps not, but without Johnson, Michigan’s secondary is vulnerable, and -14 is obviously a key number.
Losing him just about dooms the Wolverines’ hopes of a season-saving upset.
But in good faith, -14.5 cannot be given out as a “bonus bet.” There are, however, two thoughts stemming from it …
First of all, to those of you who develop parlays of a pile of hefty moneyline favorites, your bad process can now include Indiana without any hesitation.
Secondly, there is increasing skepticism Johnson will return to play at all this year. It is a lost cause in Ann Arbor in 2024, and his draft stock is worth protecting. To anyone who wants to scoff at that thought, realize that is how significant first-round money is in the NFL draft, and if you insist a player should risk that anyway, then perhaps encourage your representatives to help install college football players as employees.
If/when Johnson is ruled out at the end of Thanksgiving week, be prepared to see the Ohio State spread climb by at least half a point.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
Notre Dame by a million.
The official line is -25.5 or -26, depending on your sportsbook.
Obviously, those are rather dead numbers. And betting alternative spreads is rarely a good choice.
But in each of the last three seasons, Notre Dame’s aggressive defense has lined up across from a moribound offense late in the season, and on each occasion, the Irish have run up the score courtesy of defensive havoc.
2021: Notre Dame 45, Stanford 14.
2022: Notre Dame 44, Boston College 0.
2023: Notre Dame 58, Pittsburgh 7.
The Irish forced 12 turnovers over those three games, holding those opponents to an average of 218.3 total yards. And now, defensive coordinator Al Golden might be facing the worst offense of the group.
Okay, I'm convinced. Full murder.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 8, 2024
1) @statsowar's graph for BC at ND in 22.
2) for Pitt at ND in 23.
3) For Florida State at ND this week.
Focus on the top-left red and the top-right blue.
That's wretched offense vs great defense.
The worst offense of these 3 vs the best defense. pic.twitter.com/oUB8W2ON08
It would be poor form to spend a “Bonus Bet” on an alternate line, but let’s note, just for the sake of being thorough, that FanDuel offers Notre Dame at -34.5 at +240.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Notre Dame -26 vs. Florida State (-110 at DraftKings)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
Any other week and maybe Kansas would have a chance. The Jayhawks have more talent than they have shown this season, undone by going 0-5 in one-score games. Kansas is better than its 2-6 record, by all means.
But, some prophecies become self-fulfilling, and this looks like one of them.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa State just took its first loss of the season, a 23-22 defeat in a rainstorm against Texas Tech. Before that, the Cyclones had gone 2-0 in one-score games this year.
Iowa State losing last week makes it a clear bet this week. The Cyclones know they still have all their dreams ahead of them. Big 12 tiebreakers currently lean Iowa State’s way over Colorado, so the Cyclones simply need to win out to reach the conference championship game. And from there, a win and into the Playoff.
This spread hanging out at only a field goal smells like Kansas’s kryptonite, a broken team likely to break again in a one-score game, certainly against someone still so motivated.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Iowa State -2.5 (-112 at FanDuel)🏈
"College Football 134" Value from Tuesday
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Giving out South Carolina at -3.5 may have come across as an egregious “Heel Turn,” but that line is now -6, so clearly there was value in that villainous decision.
The one play to go against us? @Covers_Caley's half-assed "Heel Turn."
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 7, 2024
The Utah Team Total has ticked up to 18.5 after he bet it at 17.5.
If you're gonna do a heel turn, make it a real heel turn. I'll always do the full-assed heel turn, like this ... pic.twitter.com/l8OxtdupoS
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here⚡️
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Minnesota -6 at Rutgers (-108 at DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)
3:30 ET — Georgia State at James Madison Over 54 (-108 at DraftKings)
8:00 ET — Boise State 1H -14 vs. Nevada (+100 at BetMGM)
Note, that other books have that number at -13.5 (-130) or -14.5 (+105) as of Friday afternoon. Let this be your latest lesson in why it is always imperative to shop around.
Boise State: No. 1 EPA per rush offense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 8, 2024
Nevada: No. 106 EPA per rush defense, No. 120 in defensive rushing success rate. (h/t @statsowar, @NCAAInsiders)
Do I need to say anything else to explain Boise State 1H -14?
After Dark — Utah Team Total Under 19.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Saturday sneak peek
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Army at North Texas? Have at ‘em. Wondering why North Carolina State is favored against Duke? That makes two of us. If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Now it feels like a gin night. Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
