Top-3 matchups usually come with more hype. Perhaps the last two weeks of college football drama have worn out headline writers, but the Ohio State Buckeyes' trip to face the Oregon Ducks should be one of the most impactful games of our entire season.
One of these two teams has only impressed this season, while one scuffled enough through 2.5 games to inspire some doubt. Hence, the Buckeyes are now favored by more than a field goal tonight.
That hook will not scare me off in my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions, as these college football picks will trust the best defense in the country against an offense still finding its wanted groove. That defense should yield some reward after kickoff on Saturday, October 12.
Ohio State vs Oregon prediction and best bet
Who will win Ohio State vs Oregon?
Homefield advantage at Autzen Stadium should not be too heavily discounted, and one could worry it has been with this spread at a field goal at most sportsbooks and Buckeyes by 3.5 at BetMGM.
At the same time, Ohio State has plenty of experience in big moments, including big moments on the road. Quarterback Will Howard threw four touchdowns at Texas last year and three more at Missouri.
Losing each game by a field goal was more a reflection of Kansas State’s defense than it was of any Howard struggles. Frankly, he dazzled in the fourth quarter in Austin, rallying the Wildcats back from a 20-point deficit with fewer than 20 minutes remaining, throwing three touchdowns in the final 15 minutes and leading a last-minute, game-tying drive.
And the Buckeyes’ defense is filled with veterans. Defense typically travels better than offense in college football, and that edge alone should set up Ohio State to win.
It's not often I see the biggest game of the weekend and want to place a best bet on it, but Ohio State at Oregon has that kind of value.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 9, 2024
Buckeyes -3.
I'll always back a defensive line with veterans that should be on NFL rosters. pic.twitter.com/NQk3VRKGMy
Enough about who will win: Who will cover?
My best bet
Ohio State -3.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Would we prefer to avoid that hook? Absolutely, and a discerning shopper will avoid it, but all the juice is leaning the way of the Ohio State Buckeyes as of Thursday afternoon, so dodging that hook may not be an option much longer.
Numbers moving toward the Buckeyes reinforce a touch of doubt in Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel, in part thanks to throwing three interceptions in his last two games. And some of that doubt stems from Oregon’s offensive line.
On 10.6% of Ducks’ snaps, Gabriel has to either throw the ball away, scramble from pressure or succumb to it. Oregon ranks No. 7 in the Big Ten in the rate of those worries and No. 5 in their impact.
Obviously, both those ranks are well above average, but for a national title contender, any advanced metric worse than Rutgers (9.8% in the rate of those stressors) or Wisconsin (-0.4 expected points added per game on those plays, compared to -1.6 for Oregon) is a problem.
BIG 10 OFFENSE AND DEFENSE PROFILES, FBS v FBS 2024 pic.twitter.com/evi0VBAl3J
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 10, 2024
Worse yet, the Ducks are getting away from running the ball in part out of necessity. Their offensive design always emphasizes the pass, but it still showcases a successful running game. Last year, Oregon’s offense reached the bowl game with the No. 6 running attack in the country in EPA per rush, largely because it succeeded 51.8% of the time, No. 3 in the country.
Right now, the Ducks’ rushing attack ranks No. 3 in EPA per rush, but more so thanks to explosive runs. It now ranks No. 14 in success rate at 47.3%. That may not sound like a significant dropoff, but that is an additional stalled drive or two per game, and yes, Oregon’s quality drive rate has fallen more than 3% this season.
Again, these are minimal problems, but for a national title contender now facing the best defense in the country, they are concerning.
There is no reliable way to attack Ohio State’s defense, no edge to exploit. It should make Gabriel’s life frustrating on Saturday night, and whether that results in sacks or greater mistakes, that is edge enough to lessen any worry about taking the hook on this spread.
Ohio State vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State -2.5
Under 53.5
Will Howard anytime touchdown
Do not read into that different spread in the same-game parlay. For reasons beyond our comprehension, BetMGM skews the spread on its SGP menu, but that works to our advantage here.
This handicap is clearly based on Ohio State’s defense dictating terms. Furthermore, the Buckeyes will be quite content to run the ball extensively, boasting arguably the best backfield in the country and able to exploit the lesser half of Oregon’s defense. All those thoughts point toward a shortened game.
As good as Ohio State’s running backs are, Howard still gets his number called near the goal line. He has rushed for a touchdown in each of the last four games, his mobility putting defenses in a compromising position at the goal line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio State vs Oregon odds
Ohio State vs Oregon live odds
Ohio State vs Oregon opening odds
- Ohio State vs. Oregon spread: Oregon +4
- Ohio State vs. Oregon moneyline: Ohio State -165, Oregon +140
- Ohio State vs. Oregon Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Ohio State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- As a clear Game of the Year, this spread was available all summer, spending most of it with Ohio State favored by 1.5 points before moving to a pick’em at some sportsbooks.
- When the number reopened on Sunday, the Buckeyes were initially 4-point favorites, quickly falling to -3.5 and then to -3 on Monday, some books returning to -3.5 on Thursday.
- Sunday saw an opening total of 51.5, a total already down from a summer stalwart of 56.5. Credit Ohio State’s defense for that shift, though also let it underscore some Gabriel concerns.
- The total stuck at 51.5 to start the week before ticking up to 52.5 on Tuesday and 53.5 on Thursday.
Ohio State vs Oregon betting trend to know
Oregon is 1-4 against the spread this season, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 14.5 in those four ATS losses. That is enough of a discrepancy; it goes beyond a heavy favorite not pressing down the proverbial gas pedal. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Oregon.
Ohio State vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Ohio State vs Oregon latest injuries
Ohio State vs Oregon weather
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