The Michigan Wolverines are winners of 16 straight, but now find themselves as underdogs against the Texas Longhorns.
Why? Mostly because the Wolverines’ offense looked horrendous in the season opener against Fresno State, and my Texas vs. Michigan predictions will further doubt the Wolverines’ offense.
See why my college football picks trust what we saw in Week 1 for your best bet on Saturday, September 7.
Texas vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
First touchdown: Texas (-210 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Other books offer a Michigan Wolverines team total Under 16.5, but betting on this “first touchdown” market will grant a quicker payout on Saturday afternoon. Both approaches doubt the Wolverines’ offense.
Michigan needed an interception return for a touchdown and another short field created by an interception, a 31-yard drive ending in a touchdown, to score 30 points against Fresno State. On nine other genuine possessions, the Wolverines managed just 16 points. More to this prop bet’s exact wonder, Michigan put together four quality drives on those nine possessions, finding the endzone just once.
The Wolverines have a playmaking problem, a natural one when replacing all but one offensive starter but also one worsened by an apparent misunderstanding of their quarterback situation. Effectively for a year now, junior Alex Orji has been seen as J.J. McCarthy’s successor … until last Saturday, when Michigan instead relied on former walk-on Davis Warren behind center. Warren is plenty quality, but there is a roster issue in turning to him.
Building an offense for Orji’s skill set meant focusing on the run. Building one for Warren calls for threatening receivers, something the Wolverines didn't seek out this past offseason because they assumed they were readying for Orji at quarterback.
Eight of Warren’s 15 completions went to tight end Colston Loveland, the only returning offensive starter. Averaging 4.7 yards per pass attempt is a worry against any opponent, let alone against a Fresno State defense that could be described as rather average against the pass.
Is 2024 Michigan just a version of 2023 Texas?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 4, 2024
That thought got me rolling on "College Football 134" this week. Go find it all those podcast places ... pic.twitter.com/vGByo5cK5O
Thus, Michigan failed to string together quality possessions and failed even more at finishing them. The Texas Longhorns have no such worries. They efficiently hung 52 points on Colorado State, scoring five touchdowns on seven genuine possessions before backup quarterback Arch Manning took the reins.
Not one of those Texas touchdowns came via an explosive play. The Longhorns kept those in their back pocket, awaiting the Wolverines. And they still showed they can finish drives — the biggest difference for Michigan to worry about on Saturday.
Texas vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan team total Under 16.5 points
Semaj Morgan Under 44.5 receiving yards
Isaiah Bond anytime touchdown
That first touchdown prop can't be included in a same-game parlay at BetMGM, but its logic still applies to fading Michigan's team total.
Last week, sophomore receiver Semaj Morgan caught just two passes for eight yards. He rushed for more yardage, one carry going for nine yards.
Morgan was a four-star recruit, but he wasn't among the elite receivers in his class. At 5-foot-11, much of Morgan’s game hinges on speed, but with Texas not worrying about Michigan’s rush game, Morgan will face safety help on any deep routes.
At Warren's rate of success last week, Morgan would need 10 targets to clear this number, and that's without crediting the Longhorns’ pass defense as more concerning than the Bulldogs’.
Isaiah Bond should become the downfield focus of Steve Sarkisian’s offense, already catching five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. Arguably the most talented of Texas’s receivers, Bond is the likely target if and when Sark draws up a shot play that he kept hidden last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Michigan odds
Texas vs Michigan live odds
Texas vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Texas -6.5 | Michigan +6.5
- Moneyline: Texas -250 | Michigan +195
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- All summer, this spread sat with Texas favored by 3.5. Before lookahead lines could even be pulled down on Saturday night, Michigan’s lousy offense inspired bettors to start betting that -3.5, pushing it to -5 before the end of the night.
- It reopened on Sunday afternoon with the Longhorns favored by 6.5, and that climbed to -7.5 by the end of Monday.
- The total opened on Sunday afternoon at 44.5 and briefly peaked at 45.5 before falling as low as 42.5 early on Wednesday, a move that fits in step with the spread jumping, as both doubt the Wolverines’ ability to score.
Texas vs Michigan betting trend to know
Six of Michigan’s last 10 home games have gone Under their totals. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Michigan.
Texas vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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