Wisconsin vs Minnesota Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Setting Football Back a Decade

Call it the Dairy Raid if you must, but also point out how sour the Wisconsin Badgers offense has been this season. Some of that is tied to injuries, but even with quarterback Tanner Mordecai and running back Braelon Allen, Wisconsin has fallen short of every offensive expectation.

That will prove costly this weekend, giving the Minnesota Golden Gophers ample chance to hold onto Paul Bunyan’s Axe. The Gophers have not won this border rivalry for three straight years since the mid-80s, adding intrigue to this year’s college football odds matchup.

But as much as we put faith in Minnesota on Saturday, let’s doubt Wisconsin too in our free college football picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Minnesota on Saturday, November 25.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota best odds

Wisconsin vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Bookmakers have not been able to keep up with how bad the Wisconsin Badgers offense is, not even after an entire season. Wisconsin has fallen short of its team total in regulation in nine of 11 games this season, including each of its last four. And even when the Badgers exceeded those expectations, they did so by just three points against Illinois and eight points against Purdue.

In those nine disappointments, Wisconsin fell short of its team total by an average of 8.9 points, a number rising to 10.6 over the last month.

Offensive coordinator Phil Longo was supposed to change the offensive flavor in Camp Randall, and instead, his up-tempo approach has yielded great frustrations.

Consider how far that offense has fallen: Entering the season, SP+ ranked the Wisconsin offense as No. 43 in the country. By now, it is at No. 86, viewed as 8.6 points worse than those preseason plans.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will amplify those offensive limitations. While the Gophers have faced their own offensive struggles this season — the program was always headed toward an offensive cliff when it lost its backfield veterans after last year — their defense has kept them respectable. And it goes beyond laughing at the Big Ten West.

Minnesota’s defense is ranked No. 41 by SP+, at its best against the rush. Instinct may be that a decent run defense will cause even further problems for the Badgers, but the Longo effect is that Wisconsin throws the ball three percent more often than would be expected when considering game state, per cfb-graphs.com.

But the decent Gophers’ run defense keeps opponents from quality drives nearly two-thirds of the time, and that is a reality that the Badgers already struggle with. In a game that will be played in 20-degree temperatures, a lack of explosive plays will be emphasized, and Minnesota has proven itself apt this season at eventually stopping drives, keeping opponents out of regular scoring range.

Wisconsin may need 10 drives to threaten the end zone three times, and it would need more than those three scoring chances to crack this team total, a rarity for the Badgers this season.

My best bet: Wisconsin team total Under 22.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Wisconsin team total Under 22.5 points

Wisconsin first half moneyline

Minnesota full game moneyline

30% boost available

+1,130 +1,469 at FanDuel

Twice this season, the Gophers have lost the first half and then won the game, against Louisiana and Iowa. Chalk up those early struggles to that aforementioned offensive cliff and its crippling effects, and then give head coach PJ Fleck some credit for finding ways late in the game.

And the home team that has won the last two games in this matchup should get that benefit of the doubt this weekend. This is wholly an intangible thought, and basing any handicap on intangibles is always a questionable process, but Fleck can quell any frustration around his program with a third-straight win against Minnesota’s biggest rival.

Meanwhile, Badgers head coach Luke Fickell simply has to chalk up this season to the frustrations of his first year in Madison. It did not live up to any of his hopes, and a win this weekend will not change that.

Both sides genuinely care about this rivalry, but only Wisconsin had grander aspirations this season. Those being scrapped will show up as an overall lackluster push this weekend.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

The Badgers opened as one-point favorites on Sunday, a spread that reached -2 by Sunday night and has dabbled at -3 late in the week. Neither Wisconsin nor Minnesota has delivered against the spread this season, notching just three ATS wins apiece.

The total opened at 41.5, and it has climbed steadily this week, defying comprehension. It reached 42 on Monday and 43 on Wednesday, peaking at 43.5 on Thursday, despite both of these teams posting more Unders than Overs this season.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Minnesota has won five of its last seven home games. Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs Minnesota.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota game info

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