NFL Week 11 Total Bets: Cowboys Mediocrity Continues

Over/Under bet #1: Chiefs vs Bills Under 46

Those who have been checking out this column weekly would probably notice that I've been constantly betting Unders in Kansas City Chiefs games. The Under is now 5-2 in their last seven contests, and both Overs were bad beats, with Vegas scoring a garbage time touchdown in the final minute and the Bucs scoring a game-tying TD with 27 seconds left. 

Kansas City's offense has been depleted by injuries. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been cleared to return but RB Isaiah Pacheco is still out while receivers Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are on the IR. Patrick Mahomes has the second-lowest average intended air yards (5.7) in the league, so everything has been underneath for this offense with few explosive plays downfield. 

The Chiefs' defense has been getting the job done and ranks fifth in the league in points per game allowed (17.9). They should be able to slow down a Buffalo Bills offense that likes to run the ball and is missing a bunch of receiving weapons for Josh Allen. 

Wideout Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid have been ruled out, while Amari Cooper is questionable with a wrist injury that could affect his ability to catch even if he does play. The loss of Kincaid could be especially impactful because defending tight ends has been the biggest weakness for this Chiefs D.

Over/Under bet #2: Bengals vs Chargers Over 47.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been in several low-scoring games this season but expect plenty of points on Sunday Night Football. The Over is 7-2 in the Cincinnati Bengals last nine games, with more than 65 points hung on the board in the last two weeks.

The Bolts are second in the league in defensive EPA but have benefitted from facing a slew of terrible offenses. They don't match up well against Cincinnati's aerial attack, especially since they rank second-last in the league in pressure rate. If Joe Burrow has time in the pocket, he'll be able to find receivers Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins who is set to return from a quad injury this week.

While the Bengals are fourth in the league in EPA/play, thanks to Burrow & Co., they are just 28th in defensive EPA. The Chargers will be able to run the ball with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and they've opened up their offensive playbook with Justin Herbert averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt over the last four games. 

Over/Under bet #3: Texans vs Cowboys Under 42

After Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury, expectations were low for Cooper Rush last week. He still somehow fell short of them, completing 13 of 23 passes for a pathetic 45 yards. Rush was so bad that fans have been calling for former 49ers castoff Trey Lance to take over, although Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy has confirmed that he'll start again. 

The Cowboys are second-last in the NFL with 83.7 rushing yards per game on just 3.8 yards per carry, and now they won't be able to move the ball through the air either. Especially against a Houston Texans stop unit that is eighth in the league in defensive EPA and second in defensive success rate. 

Despite having C.J. Stroud at quarterback, Houston's offense is just 30th in the league in success rate due to a mediocre line. Dallas can take advantage of that since superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons came back from an injury last week to pick up two sacks. Texans WR Nico Collins will return after a five-game absence, but expect them to lean on running back Joe Mixon to control the clock after building an early lead.