Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Winn Wheels and Deals vs Cards

Prop bet #1: Allen aces M's

This is a real battle in futility as Logan Allen takes the mound against the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. Allen has been far from great this year. His ERA hovers over 5.00, and his expected ERA tells the story of that being a pretty fair depiction of his season. That’s why we have such a high number here today.

The good thing for Allen? Seattle is awful against left-handed pitching.

You can use basic stats, like batting average, where the Mariners rank last against lefties. Or you can go advanced and look at other metrics. Seattle ranks in the Bottom 10 of baseball against lefties in wOBA, wRC+, and wOBA. They’ve done a decent job of hitting the ball hard against lefties when they do, it’s just they rarely make contact. That should work in our favor, as a big slam could pull Allen from the game early. But even if not, we still have plenty working in our favor. 

Allen has faced three other teams ranking in the Bottom 10 in batting average against lefties this season. In those matchups, all have stayed within the number of five hits allowed.

Logan Allen prop: Under 5.5 hits allowed (-155 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Here comes the Judge

I love this spot for Aaron Judge today and will be playing it for two units. 

Psychologically, Judge is geared up to play today. He spoke candidly about being angry with the Baltimore Orioles hitting him on the wrist with a pitch, forcing him to miss Wednesday’s game. He also did all he could to force his way back into the lineup but was held out for precautionary reasons. Today, he’s expected to return to a massive game for the New York Yankees. It will decide the series between these two sides and set an early season pace for the divisional race.

Judge faces a lefty that has an issue with the hard-hit ball. That’s pretty much enough said. Cole Irvin will enter today ranking in the Bottom 35% of hard-hit and barrel rates. That’s a problem against one of the best power hitters in baseball.

It’s an even more significant issue when you’re a left-handed pitcher as Judge ranks fifth in baseball in isolated power against them. It could be a massive day for the AL MVP odds candidate. 

Aaron Judge prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Winn will be dealing vs. Cards

This is a pretty simple analysis; I projected this number at 16.6, so I see some substantial value in this number. 

If you hit a lot of ground balls, you may struggle against Keaton Winn, and nobody in baseball has hit them at a higher clip than the St. Louis Cardinals. Why is that an issue against Winn? Well, it's because he is in an elite tier of ground-ball rate. His entire season numbers place him in the Top 12% of baseball in such categories. It may be a long day for the Cardinals with that in mind.

Winn has gone Over this number in five starts this season. All but one have come against teams ranking in the Top 15 in ground-ball rate. I’ll take my chances here that Winn is a bit undervalued in this market. He gets a matchup he prefers, and even if he’s been bad at points this season, this is a direct strength-on-weakness matchup.

Keaton Winn prop: Over 15.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)