Why are the Georgia Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament? It was long assumed they would be, far from the bubble, but before a four-game winning streak starting in late February, they were a far cry from March Madness. They should be a quick out for the Gonzaga Bulldogs in this opening-round matchup.
My Georgia vs. Gonzaga predictions and March Madness picks doubt the 10th team from the SEC. Tip comes at 4:35 on Thursday, March 20.
Who will win Georgia vs Gonzaga?
Gonzaga will. And note, this preview cannot use the nickname “Bulldogs” again, unfortunate given Georgia has a developing basketball program and ethos that should be embraced. That is also why it is unfortunate Georgia was gifted this No. 9 seed and the loss that will come with it.
It is a lousy gift since Gonzaga is wildly underseeded on the No. 8 line in the Midwest Region. The ‘Zags could have justifiably been a 3- or a 4-seed, despite their 25-8 record.
Imagine if Gonzaga had pulled off an overtime win against West Virginia or Kentucky in the nonconference part of its schedule, both overtime losses. Such a moment would have helped the world recognize how good Gonzaga is this year, simply struggling to win in close games. The ‘Zags lost three overtime games, and four of their other five losses came in two-score games. That final loss, also their most recent, was by just seven points to Saint Mary’s, hardly something to panic over.
In every way, Gonzaga is better than Georgia. Focusing on the résumé for simplicity’s sake, Georgia’s nonconference slate was marked by beating Saint John’s and losing handily to Marquette. It then went 8-11 in SEC games. Georgia is in the NCAA Tournament because the SEC traded on its reputation to boost up its lesser teams. That should be exposed quickly this week.
Georgia vs Gonzaga prediction
My best bet: Gonzaga -6.5 (-110 at bet365)
Okay, let’s look beyond the résumés, though it is hard given how poorly the selection committee treated the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
If the Georgia Bulldogs are going to stay in this game — and let’s reiterate, Georgia was 4-10 in SEC play up until Feb. 25. A four-game winning streak with wins over three NCAA Tournament teams propelled it into March Madness. — it will need to do so starting with its defense. Georgia’s defense ranks No. 29 in efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy, a defense that excels most at limiting good looks from long range.
The problem, well, one of many problems for Georgia is that Gonzaga doesn’t much care about 3-pointers, taking them on only 33.5% of field goal attempts, No. 313 in the country. Just as much a problem, Gonzaga ranks No. 95 in offensive rebounding rate, a distinct weakness of Georgia’s defense.
Frankly, every thought here is going to tie back to wondering both why Georgia is in the Tournament and why Gonzaga received such a lousy seed. But the mark of a good handicap is at least pondering the other side of it.
So it must be wondered, how could Georgia keep this close? It does not shoot well or often from deep. Instead, it relies on offensive rebounds and drawn fouls for a significant share of points. Credit freshman Asa Newell for those joys, ranking No. 49 in the country in tracking down offensive boards, part of how he has made 62.4% of his 2-point shots this season.
Here come more problems for Georgia. Gonzaga ranks No. 35 in the country in defensive rebounding and No. 68 in opposing free throw rate. Credit a deep and veteran frontcourt, led by senior Graham Ike, for those strengths.
All of which is to say, this should be the least climactic 8 vs. 9 matchup this week. Georgia simply has no recourse to keeping this close. Congrats on having a losing SEC record.
Georgia vs Gonzaga same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzaga -6.5
Georgia team total Under 71.5
Silas Demary Under 15.5 points
Drawing fouls is a skill. So is avoiding committing fouls.
Georgia relies on free throws for 21.4% of its points, the 61st-most in the country. For context: 19.0% is the Division I average. Gonzaga’s opponents score 18.0% of their points from the line.
Those sound like very close numbers, so let’s better emphasize the difference between the two habits. Georgia’s free throw rate ranks No. 27 in the country, more than 10 percentage points higher than Gonzaga’s free throw rate against, itself ranking No. 68.
In this particular matchup, Georgia is simply going to shoot fewer free throws, and it needs those to score. No one in the rotation needs them more than sophomore wing Silas Demary, with a top-200 free throw rate in the country. Unless Demary finds a very favorable whistle, he is likely to fall below this point prop.
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Georgia vs Gonzaga odds
Georgia vs Gonzaga live odds
Georgia vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: Georgia +6.5 | Gonzaga -6.5
- Moneyline: Georgia +220 | Gonzaga -270
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Georgia vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Gonzaga has not lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2008. In its 15 appearances since then, it has been a single-digit favorite or an underdog in the first round six times, going 6-0 against the spread in those games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgia vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch Georgia vs Gonzaga
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Georgia vs Gonzaga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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