The Alt/Milestone markets are a great place to hunt for that plus-money value in the Super Bowl odds.
Accurately predicting the game script can turn a 70-yard receiver into a 100-yard one just in garbage time alone. Betting alternative Overs is one of my favorite ways to make NFL picks, and with some of the current prop totals, there are a few spots I’m happy to wager on this Sunday.
Super Bowl milestone picks
- Hurts 275+ passing yards (+425 at Caesars)
- Pacheco 7+ carries (+105 at Caesars)
- AJ Brown 100+ receiving yards (+255 at Caesars)
Picks made on 2-6.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Super Bowl milestone bets
Jalen Hurts 275+ passing yards
Jalen Hurts’ passing total is sitting at just 212.5 yards. I understand the Philadelphia Eagles are a run-first offense, but the Kansas City Chiefs is going to force Hurts to beat them, and he has the weapons to do so. He threw for 246 yards vs. the Commanders and the Eagles didn’t need to pass much in the fourth quarter.
Even if Hurts throws for 100 yards in the first half, this is still a live bet for 175 in the second half. The Chiefs will want to stop Saquon Barkley, so there could be plenty of neutral game script passing volume. If Hurts is in trail mode, this would be a much easier cash.
The indoor setting might not be as priced in the Super Bowl player props as much as it should be either as controlled environments increase passing volume and efficiency. Over his 15 indoor games, Hurts has averaged 241 passing yards per game. The last time he saw this team indoors at a Super Bowl, he threw for Over 300 yards, including 180 in the first half.
Jalen Hurts prop: 275+ passing yards (+425 at Caesars)
Isiah Pacheco 7+ carries
I have been a Kareem Hunt backer all playoffs, but the difference between him and Isiah Pacheco has grown too large to ignore in terms of how books are pricing their Super Bowl props.
This is not the same Pacheco that ran for 5.07 yards per carry and 76 yards vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl 57. However, he still got the first carries vs. the Bills and could have gotten more if he had done anything with the early work, but Hunt ran for 22 yards on three carries on the first drive starting at the Buffalo 22-yard line and took the hot-hand carries from there on.
That doesn’t mean Pacheco lost the starting gig — Hunt just surprisingly looked good early, which could have been the main contributor to the 17-5 carry split. The Chiefs ran the ball at one of their highest clips this season in that game at 57%. If they run their typical 60-65 plays at that rate, that’s 35 to 37 carries to go around. Hunt is not built to be a lead back and the market couldn’t be lower for Pacheco, who could likely get the first crack at the carries again.
His carry total is set at just 5.5 — juiced to the Over. But Caesars has his 7+ carries at +105, which is the best price currently. It’s not a big number at +105, but Pacheco could have three carries alone on the first drive. His 30+ rushing yards at +160 would be my next favorite Alt Over on the low-priced back, but this is buying the bottom of Pacheco stock. If anything happens to Hunt, this should cash with ease, too.
Isiah Pacheco prop: 7+ carries (+105 at Caesars)
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AJ Brown 100+ receiving yards
Because of the low passing total from Hurts, that filters down to the receiving markets for the Eagles. AJ Brown, a player who had closing totals of 89.5 yards late in the season before Hurts’ concussion, has a current receiving yard total of 70.5 yards that has been on the rise. Even vs. the Commanders as a near-TD favorite outdoors, this number closed at 69.5 yards.
Brown and the Eagles passing game got going two weeks ago and he finished with 96 yards on six catches in a game where he didn’t even have a catch in the final 15 minutes. His line could have been bigger if it weren’t for such a massive late lead.
Brown can put up big yards even with small target volume. If the Eagles are in catch-up mode, Brown has a serious path to destroy his total. This is the same receiver who just last year had a six-game stretch of 125+ receiving yards. He could also see a ton of single coverage with K.C. wanting to stop Barkley and get double-digit targets. Low or high volume, he has outs for this Alt Over.
My Super Bowl predictions think there are multiple paths for the Eagles to put up big passing yard totals and that market might be the best to target for alternative Overs.
AJ Brown prop: 100+ receiving yards (+255 at Caesars)
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